ANDREW EBORN’s ULTIMATE GUIDE TO WINNING AN ELECTION – first published May 3rd 2017
For several years, Andrew Eborn has successfully predicted major events and election results with alarming accuracy.
Whilst pollsters flubbed spectacularly, Andrew Eborn predicted the Tory victory in 2015, the backfire of Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in 2017, the twists and turns of Brexit, the unanimous decision of The Supreme Court that #prorogation was “unlawful, void and of no effect and should be quashed”, the post truth era of Trump and even the date of the next election – 12th December 2019.
Against all the odds, Andrew Eborn 100% record of predicting human behaviour, the media coverage and results remains intact.
As a Member of The Inner Magic Circle with Gold Star as well as a lawyer and stategist, predictions and a deep understanding of human behaviour come with Andrew Eborn’s territory.
Andrew Eborn provides 7 simple steps to ensure victory in the next election:-
Step 1 Manage the brand – call in the experts
Politics has always been a popularity contest. The key to maintaining any brand is control of the message.
Politicians are in the business of being elected.
We love to know everything about our politicians – their families, love lives, personal preferences …We snigger at their failings and love it when politicians hurl insults at each other. From the bear pit of Prime Minister’s Question Time to name calling – mugwumps, dadiprats and gollumpuseses all.
The importance of spin doctors, strategists and brand experts has never been stronger. Having experts at your side throughout is essential.
Saatchi & Saatchi created the 1979 ad campaign which saw Mrs Thatcher become prime minister. Showing a long, snaking queue to the unemployment office with the headline ‘Labour Isn’t Working’. They went on to help secure 3 successive electoral victories for the Tories.
Where would Tony Blair have been without his Director of Communications and Strategy, Alistair Campbell?
The last election saw the return of Sir Lynton Crosby – “master of the dark political arts” – who was appointed to play a leading role running the Tory campaign. The “Wizard of Oz” was widely regarded as the architect of David Cameron’s victory. Sir Lynton correctly predicted the outcome in spite of the polling companies “It wasn’t just Ed Miliband’s Labour Party that revealed itself as out of touch and remote from the people who are the backbone of Britain. It was a failure for the Westminster-centric ‘Eddie the Expert’ and ‘Clarrie the Commentator’ who were tested and found wanting. It was as much a judgement day for them as Ed Miliband and they lost.”
Yet again, history will repeat itself and the master media manipulators will ensure victory. Never let the truth stand in the way of a good story.
Step 2 Play the fear card
Fear is one of the most powerful motivators. It helped secure victory for Brexit and Donald Trump and has aided the rise of the far right.
Fear for our jobs. Fear for our position in the world post Brexit. Fear for the environment.
The threat is clear – if you don’t vote we will fail and it will be your fault!
3 Adopt a catchy, generic slogan
As with all advertising a catchy slogan with sentiments which no one could dispute is key. The Labour Party’s 1997 election campaign slogan “Britain Deserves Better” helped secure victory for Tony Blair. Similarly Trump’s “Make America Great Again” saw The Donald defy the pollsters.
May’s “strong and stable leadership” mantra was regurgitated ad nauseum when asked about everything from the scandal of food waste to Brexit to Tory tax policies.
Britain deserves Better!
4 Limit debate
The Nixon Kennedy debate on 26th September 1960 elevated John F Kennedy from a relatively unknown senator from Massachusetts to a super star. In comparison Nixon seemed shift, sickly and sweaty.
The underdog has everything to gain from a TV debate. Those with a clear lead have everything to lose.
Skilled interviewers can destroy reputations. History is littered with victims – Frost extracting an apology from Nixon for Watergate. Paxman savaging Michael Howard, then the Home Secretary, in May 1997 regrading a meeting Howard had with Derek Lewis, head of the prison service about the possible dismissal of the governor of Parkhurst Prison, John Marriott. The presenter asks Howard the same question – “Did you threaten to overrule him?” – twelve times. A masterclass in persistence – resulting in a very uncomfortable stalemate.
Developing the art of avoiding the question is key and has given birth of a whole new business of self-professed experts– media trainers.
Master the art of question dodging and how to use lots of words but say absolutely nothing
In his analysis of the techniques used in political interviews Peter Bull, from the Department of Psychology at the University of York, identified 35 different techniques used to evade answers from “rephrasing the question,” “attacking the question,” and even Margaret Thatcher’s favourite “attacking the interviewer.” Give a “non-specific answer to a specific question.”
6 Restrict the Media
“Whoever controls the media, controls the mind” ― Jim Morrison
Donald Trump is undoubtedly a master of media manipulation.
It is so much easier to only allow access to those outlets who are friendly to your cause and ban others. The White House has already barred several news organisations from off camera press briefings. The BBC, CNN, the New York Times, the Guardian, the Los Angeles Times, Buzzfeed, the Daily Mail and Politico have been among those excluded.
But don’t expect the media to go down without a fight:
The New York Times editorial pointed out: “That First Amendment can be inconvenient for anyone longing for power without scrutiny. Mr. Trump might want to brush up on what it means, and get used to it.”
The LA Times said: “If the intent was to intimidate reporters into writing fewer things that the administration does not like, and more things that it does, it is doomed to failure.”
7 …and if all else fails blame the media
Follow these simple steps and election success is guaranteed.
Failing which take The Trumpster’s lead. Any view which is contrary to your own can be dismissed as “fake news” setting the stage for your spin doctors to peddle the “alternative facts”.
Blame that “enemy of the people”, the corrupt press, pointing out that you now realise how dishonest the media is….
Do not be surprised when you hear the announcement of TNN Trump Network News….. You heard it here first, folks
What is shockingly clear is that at every election the biggest winner is apathy. Non-voters would play a pivotal role in the general election if they were to use their vote.
Katie Ghose, Chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society “Despite our flawed voting system, it’s vital that everyone gets out there and uses their hard-fought right to vote. Voting does make a difference, and wherever people are they should have their say. The point is to make the voice of voters even stronger.”
We need to restore trust in politicians and to bother about the issues – climate change, food waste, housing, caring for an increasingly ageing population, health and education for all, security as well as our position on the global stage after Brexit.
Focusing on the real issues whilst being aware of the tactics being deployed to manipulate the media is a start. Whatever your views, we should encourage everyone to question everything and to vote
Local government elections take place at least every 4 years. Not all local government elections take place at the same time.
Your local government will do one of the following:
- elect all the local councillors every 4 years
- elect half the local councillors every 2 years
- elect one third of the local councillors every year for 3 years and hold no elections in the 4th year
ANDREW EBORN PREDICTS LOCAL ELECTIONS 2022
The latest research for Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now interviewed 1,749 adults in the 201 councils holding ballots this week.
Survey found Labour may gain more than 800 councilors in the contests on Thursday 5th May and Conservatives could see their numbers dive by 548.
This would be the worst Tory showing since Tony Blair was Labour leader, with flagship councils such as Wandsworth, Westminster, Southampton and Thurrock on the line.
Andrew Eborn predicts that the results will not be as bad for the Tory Party as pollsters forecast with losses closer to 485 seats and 12 councils. Losses are likely to include Barnet, Southampton, Wandsworth & Westminster.
It will also be a mixed bag with the Tories winning Harrow as well as the mayoral race in Croydon and – contrary to pollsters’ forecasts – Andrew Eborn predicts that The Tories will hold Thurrock.
Andrew Eborn also predicts that the Liberal Democrats will see increased number of Councillors and Labour will also suffer losses including Hull to The Lib Dems.
Andrew Eborn also predicts that Sinn Féin will be the biggest party in Northern Ireland