Andrew Eborn, broadcaster, lawyer & futurist, reveals that there were seven secret pandemic exercises conducted by the British Government between 2015 and 2018
Following a tip off by Professor Ananth Viswanathan regarding Exercise Alice, Andrew Eborn, broadcaster, lawyer & futurist, discovered that there were at least seven secret pandemic exercises conducted by the British Government between 2015 and 2018
The Department of Health, NHS England and Public Health England were advised of the risks posed by a major pandemic. They repeatedly modelled Ebola, Lassa, Influenza, and other highly infectious diseases. Each one of these pandemic exercises gave rise to multiple “lessons identified”.
Exercise Pica looked specifically at primary care and GP services during an Influenza Pandemic about a year before COVID-19 happened, and it recommended remote consultations.
EXERCISE ALICE – DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE
One of the reasons for the suboptimal response to covid was given as a lack of preparedness: Matt Hancock said “famously, all the preparations and the plans that were in place were for a flu pandemic.”
This does not appear to be true.
In 2016 Exercise Alice considered the response to a coronavirus, MERS-CoV it was commissioned by The Department of Health. Chief Medical Officer (Dame Sally Davies) involving NHS England, Public Health England, and the Department of Health. Observers were also invited from GO-Science and the Cabinet Office. The Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt at the time.
The document was released after a Freedom Of Information request by an NHS doctor, Moosa Qureshi.
MERS and COVID-19 behave differently, but Alice raised several questions in areas including PPE availability and training, border control, contact tracing and isolation. None of these appear to have been followed up.
SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) do not appear to have discussed border control measures until 28 April 2020 and restrictions were only introduced on 8 June 2020.
A BMJ Opinion piece by Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine concludes ‘The prime minister views himself as a historian. Perhaps he has forgotten that Richard Nixon’s downfall after Watergate owed as much to the cover up as to the act itself. ‘
Event 201
Event 201 was a pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. The Event 201 pandemic exercise was conducted on October 18, 2019.
Event 201 vividly demonstrated a number of important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of the solutions between the public and private sectors that would be needed to fill them.
A Government inquiry into handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is due to open 1st half 2022
Andrew Eborn Predicts ……
For several years, Andrew Eborn has successfully predicted major events, developments in business, media, sports and technology as well as global election results with alarming accuracy. Against all the odds, Andrew’s 100% record of predicting human behaviour, media coverage and results remains intact. Whilst pollsters flubbed spectacularly, Andrew Eborn predicted the Tory victory in 2015, the backfire of Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in 2017, the twists and turns of Brexit, the unanimous decision of The Supreme Court that prorogation was “unlawful, void and of no effect and should be quashed,” and the post truth era of Trump. YouGov’s political research manager Chris Curtis described the last UK General Election as “arguably the least predictable election in modern history.” Against all the odds, Andrew Eborn again successfully predicted that the Tories would secure the largest majority since the days of Margaret Thatcher in the 80’s.
Andrew Eborn also warned of a global pandemic which would lead to panic buying, the spread of misinformation and fear, press conferences, sound bites, posturing and division. As Andrew Eborn pointed out, our health and wealth are inexorably intertwined. We need to rely on evidence based science not political point scoring.
Andrew Eborn also maintains that the backlash to The European Super League was entirely predictable and its demise inevitable.
As a Member of The Inner Magic Circle with Gold Star, as well as a lawyer, futurist and strategist, Andrew’s predictions and deep understanding of human behaviour come with the territory – making the impossible possible. For many years Andrew Eborn has empowered companies to face the challenges of changing markets, maximise the return on their rights and assist with the strategic development of their businesses. Andrew has always been at the forefront of embracing technology and spearheading developments in entertainment.
Learning the Lessons of History
As Andrew Eborn points out, history repeats itself. We could, and should, learn lessons from history and yet we fail to do so. Perhaps our biggest failure.
Follow @AndrewEborn @OctopusTV
Octopus TV Ltd Registered Office: 87 Harley House, Regent’s Park, London NW1 5HN Registered in England No. 05735329 VAT Registration No: 877383374
Subject to contract Submitted in confidence © Octopus TV Ltd 2022. The word “Octopus” and the “O” mark are Registered Trade Marks of Octopus TV Ltd and may not be used without permission. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or shown to anyone other than the intended recipients without the express written approval of Octopus TV Ltd.
