ANDREW EBORN: LESSONS FROM HISTORY – WHAT NEXT AFTER BORIS’s 211 / 148 WIN?

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As @AndrewEborn #TheFuturist predicted @OctopusTV Boos for Boris / Booze for Boris triggered the Brady Bunch after Jubilee Celebrations

BORIS won the vote 211 Vs 148

Incredibly difficult for anyone to operate when so many of their own side is against them….

A victory is a victory …BJ lives to fight another day.

Election winners: Edward Heath in 1965, Margaret Thatcher in 1975, John Major in 1990 and 1995, William Hague in 1997, Iain Duncan Smith in 2001, Michael Howard in 2003, David Cameron in 2005, Theresa May in 2016 and Boris Johnson in 2019.

Heath, Thatcher, Major, Hague and Howard voted by MPs only. Duncan Smith, Cameron, May, Johnson by MPs and Party members.

Only Michael Howard was elected unopposed
Thatcher and May were sitting prime ministers when challenged.

Margaret Thatcher

Thatcher won twice (against Anthony Meyer in 1989 and Michael Heseltine in 1990)

Under previous rules in the Conservative Party a leadership election could take place once a year.

In November 1989, Sir Anthony Meyer, MP for Clwyd North West, launched a challenge against Margaret Thatcher, who had been PM for a decade and Tory leader for 14 years.

Sir Anthony Meyer used the election to test the level of opposition to Margaret Thatcher within the party.

A large victory for Margaret Thatcher, who received the backing of 84% of MPs.

16% who either voted for Sir Anthony, spoiled their ballot papers or abstained was a signal of unhappiness among backbenchers.

These feelings of disquiet grew over the following 12 months, culminating in another leadership challenge in November 1990, this time from Michael Heseltine.

The election took place on November 20 1990
Margaret Thatcher 204 votes
Michael Heseltine 152

This was not enough for Margaret Thatcher to pass the two thresholds in the party rules which stated the winner needed more than 50% of the overall vote but also to be 15% clear of the runner-up.

Margaret Thatcher initially declared she would contest a second ballot but withdrew two days later after canvassing the opinion of close colleagues.

Douglas Hurd and John Major joined the contest.

Second ballot – held on November 27
John Major 185 votes
Michael Heseltine 131
Douglas Hurd 56.

Michael Heseltine and Douglas Hurd withdrew from the contest, removing the need for a third ballot.

John Major became leader and prime minister unopposed.

Iain Duncan Smith

Iain Duncan Smith had been leader for just over two years when he faced and lost a vote of confidence, the first time a ballot of this kind had taken place within the party. only 25 letters of no-confidence were needed to trigger the contest.

The threshold was reached on October 28 2003 and the vote took place the following day
75 MPs (45%) voted they had confidence in IDS
90 (55%) saying they had no confidence.

He announced he would step down as soon as his successor was chosen, which happened just over a week later when Michael Howard was elected leader unopposed.

John Major

Announced resignation as leader on June 22 1995, challenging his critics within the Tory party to back him or sack him.

John Redwood resigned as secretary of state for Wales to stand against Mr Major and the election took place on July 4.

John Major needed a simple majority of the 329 Conservative MPs in the House of Commons.

John Major secured 218 votes
111 MPs – a third of the party – either voted for John Redwood, spoiled their ballot papers or abstained.

John Major continued as leader and PM until losing the 1997 general election on May 1 1997

Theresa May

May resigned in June 2019 having won a ballot in December 2018.
Theresa May won a vote of confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party by 200 to 117.

After securing 63% of the total vote, she was immune from a leadership challenge for a year but resigned in June 2019 following repeated failures to get her Brexit deal through the House of Commons and a disastrous performance by the Conservatives in the European elections.

So sitting prime ministers are less likely to survive after an unimpressive win.
Margaret Thatcher 204 54.8
Michael Heseltine 152 40.9
Abstentions 16 4.3
Majority 52 14.0
Turnout 372 100

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